A new report predicts that the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in adults aged ≥30 will rise from the current rate of 13.2% to 16.7% by 2030. The study is published in the American Journal of Kidney Diseases.

Researchers at RTI International developed the prevalence model for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The model showed that for adults aged 30–49 years, 50–64 years, and ≥65 years with no baseline CKD, the residual lifetime incidence was 54%, 52%, and 42%, respectively. Other lifetime incidences included 12.5% for breast cancer in women, 33–38% for diabetes, and 90% for hypertension in middle-aged adults.

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The model reflects future health issues as the rate of diabetes increases and the average American lives longer. An analysis by the U.S. Renal Data System showed that Medicare costs for kidney disease and kidney failure already exceeded $87 billion in 2012. Study authors hope this model will increase awareness of chronic kidney disease and the need to invest in strategies to slow its progression. RTI International plans to include other national health issues such as obesity, and to evaluate the impact of positive interventions on kidney disease progression in America.

For more information visit RTI.org.