(HealthDay News) – For older adults, a second bone mineral density (BMD) measure after four years does not improve prediction of hip or major osteoporotic fractures, according to a study published in the Sept. 25 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Sarah D. Berry, MD, MPH, from the Institute for Aging Research in Boston, and colleagues investigated whether changes in BMD after four years provide additional information on fracture risk beyond baseline BMD. Data were included for 310 men and 492 women (mean age, 74.8 years) from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study who had two measures of femoral neck BMD.

The researchers found that during a median follow-up of 9.6 years, 76 and 113 participants experienced an incident hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture, respectively. After adjustment for BMD, the annual percent BMD change per standard deviation decrease correlated with increased risk of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (hazard ratio, 1.43 and 1.21, respectively). Addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD was not associated with meaningful improvement in performance in receiver operating characteristic curve analyses.

“In untreated men and women of mean age 75 years, a second BMD measure after four years did not meaningfully improve the prediction of hip or major osteoporotic fracture,” the authors write.

One author disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry, and two authors disclosed ties to UpToDate.

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