(HealthDay News) — The incidence of pediatric tuberculosis is higher than the number of infections in 22 high-burden countries, according to a study published online July 9 in The Lancet Global Health.
Peter J. Dodd, PhD, from the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom, and colleagues estimated the incidence of tuberculosis infection and disease in children, the prevalence of infection, and household exposure in 22 high-burden countries. A mechanistic mathematical model was used in which estimates of adult tuberculosis prevalence in 2010 were combined with aspects of the natural history of pediatric tuberculosis.
The researchers found that a median of 15,319,701 children were estimated to be sharing a household with an individual with infectious tuberculosis in 2010. The median number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections in children was 7,591,759 in 2010, and disease developed in 650,977 children. In 2010, the median number of children with latent infection was 53,234,854, based on cumulative exposure. In 2010, in the 15 countries reporting notification by age, 35% of pediatric cases of tuberculosis were detected. In the 22 countries, India was predicted to account for 27% of the total burden of pediatric tuberculosis. For each country, the predicted proportion of tuberculosis burden correlated with incidence, and varied from 4–21%.
“Our model has shown that the incidence of pediatric tuberculosis is higher than the number of notifications, particularly in young children,” the authors write.