(HealthDay News) – The risk of curvature progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) can be based on initial angle of curvature, age, menarcheal status, and height.

To determine risk factors for curve progression, C.F. Lee, PhD, from the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues retrospectively examined 2,308 patients (>10 years) with untreated AIS, a Risser sign of <2, and a curvature <30 degrees at presentation.

Based on time to progression to 30 degrees, the researchers identified four risk groups. Those with an initial Cobb angle of >26 degrees were at highest risk (hazard ratio [HR], 8.8), while those with an angle <18 degrees were at lowest risk (HR, 1.0). The two intermediate risk groups were based on curvature, age (more or less than 11.3 years), menarcheal status, and body height (more or less than 154cm).

“In conclusion, through our classification system, health care management of AIS patients can be made more efficient by using the clinical information collected at their first presentation >10 years old to determine the course of treatment,” Lee and colleagues write.

One author disclosed financial support from Synthes and Ellipse Technologies.

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