Model Can Predict Risk of Renal Scarring in Children

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Model Can Predict Risk of Renal Scarring in Children
Model Can Predict Risk of Renal Scarring in Children

(HealthDay News) — A model including temperature, ultrasonographic findings, and etiologic organisms is able to predict renal scarring in children with a first urinary tract infection, according to research published online Aug. 4 in JAMA Pediatrics.

Nader Shaikh, MD, MPH, from the University of Pittsburgh, and colleagues conducted a meta-analysis to identify independent prognostic factors for the development of renal scarring. Individual patient data from nine cohort studies for patients aged 0–18 years with a first urinary tract infection were pooled. Three models were assessed: clinical and ultrasonographic findings (model 1); model 1 plus serum levels of inflammatory markers (model 2); and model 2 plus voiding cystourethrogram findings (model 3).

The researchers found that 15.5% of the 1,280 participants had renal scarring. The development of renal scars correlated with a temperature of ≥39 degrees Celsius; an etiologic organism other than Escherichia coli; abnormal ultrasonographic findings; polymorphonuclear cell count >60%; C-reactive protein level >40mg/L; and vesicoureteral reflux. The predictive ability of model 1 with temperature, ultrasonographic findings, and etiologic organism was only 3–5% less than that of models requiring blood draw and/or voiding cystourethrogram. At a model 1 score cut-off of ≥2, 44.9% of patients with eventual renal scarring were identified.

"Children and adolescents with an abnormal renal ultrasonographic finding or with a combination of high fever (≥39 degrees Celsius) and an etiologic organism other than E. coli are at high risk for the development of renal scarring," the authors write.

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